Get ready for consolidation in 2025, media investors say

In the New Year, the Lumascapes could get a little smaller.

That’s because, if the tea leaves are correct, advertisers are heading into an era of consolidation, as (potentially!) lower interest rates, a (maybe!) stable economy, and a (perhaps!) more favorable regulatory landscape sets the stage for a blizzard of dealmaking. But don’t just take our word for it—listen to the bankers.

“Currently there is lots of strategic deal dialogue, which we believe will manifest in an active 2025,” ad tech investment group Luma Partners wrote in a report published in December.

In some places, that activity is already here. In December, agency holding company Omnicom announced its plans to acquire Interpublic Group in a colossal deal that, if approved, would create the “largest advertising company in the world,” per the NYT. Just weeks before the Omnicom and IPG merger was announced, Mediaocean, a software company, announced its intent to acquire CTV advertising and measurement platform Innovid, in a deal valued at $500 million—comparatively peanuts, but perhaps a green-light signal for the industry.

“All of the best companies are getting inbounds right now,” Eric Franchi, general partner at Aperiam Ventures, told Marketing Brew. “Everybody has woken up in terms of strategics and are now pursuing deals.”

Markets…moving?

In terms of ad tech and media deals, 2024 started off slow but saw some movement after a quiet couple of years. Walmart acquired Vizio in February, and over the summer, a handful of smallish supply-side companies, like Seedtag and Beachfront, consolidated. Around the same time, Paramount and Skydance agreed to merge after months of at-times-messy negotiations.

In comparison, the conditions in 2025 already look to be a lot more favorable, Mark Wright, chief of the M&A strategic advisory practice at Prohaska Consulting, said.

“Based on the RFPs we’re processing now, it looks like it’s going to be an intense Q1 leading to a very intense rest of 2025,” Wright told Marketing Brew.

In many ways, a move toward consolidation was inevitable, he explained: Advertisers have been demanding performance and efficiency amid what he described as a complex, wasteful, and inefficient market. For many companies, the scale achieved through acquisitions can in some cases be the most logical way forward.

“You’re going to see a rapid era of consolidation and a desperate race for operating scale because the margins are going to come down on these ad-tech and martech companies,” Wright said.“In order for them to be extremely profitable, they’re going to have to operate at much greater scale than they currently do.”

Where to look: Integral Ad Science, a brand-safety vendor, could be snatched up by the investment firm KKR, Business Insider reported in November. Criteo, an ad-tech company that specializes in retail media, is also rumored to be up for sale. Needham analyst Laura Martin predicted earlier this month that Roku could be snatched up, potentially by a programmatic player like The Trade Desk (because why build your own smart-TV operating system when you could buy one that’s already in 85 million households?) or a behemoth like Amazon.

Hold your horses: In the broader media landscape, Warner Bros. Discovery and Comcast are expected to attempt to spin off their cable TV businesses, which could set the stage for other tie-ups in the media and entertainment space. But don’t necessarily expect a flurry of major deals by the end of the year. In a December report from S&P Global, analyst Naveen Sarma wrote that the firm doesn’t expect “many sizeable deals will materialize” next year, citing a “lack of capital among potential strategic buyers” and a “wide difference in perceived value between potential buyers and sellers.” It’s an opinion shared among some others in the space.

“I don’t think any of these deals are going to happen in 2025,” Sarma told Marketing Brew. “2026 and beyond? Who knows.”